Fantasy football is not real life. If I was building a real-life NFL franchise, my first pick would certainly be a quarterback. It is the most important position in the game. Maybe in all of sports. A good quarterback is the catalyst of a winning team.
But in fantasy football, quarterback is the most overvalued position of all.
Some people are enamored with having Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady leading their teams into fantasy matchups each Sunday. They misappropriate their values based on real-life stardom and hype, forgetting this is a game of numbers.
Since you can only start one quarterback each matchup, their value is inherently lower. Depending on the size of your league, each team should be able to play a solid quarterback. That’s when value comes in to play. Drafting the seventh best QB in the eighth round is likely the more valuable pick than the second best QB in the third round.
Heading into last season, Aaron Rodgers was unanimously viewed as the top quarterback in fantasy. He was drafted accordingly around the second or third rounds of many drafts. Brady and Brees weren’t too far behind. We all know Rodgers missed most of the season with a broken collar bone, but we won’t count that against him. Brady finished the season third in total fantasy points, while Brees settled for a ninth place finish.
Suddenly, the balance of power at the top of the quarterback food chain had shifted. Different guys around the league were stepping up their games, Russel Wilson ended 2017 as the QB1 overall. Seattle’s long-feared defense was crumbling, and games had consequently become higher scoring. Carson Wentz looked like the MVP for much of the season, while Cam Newton regained his Pro Bowl form. Let’s not forget that Deshaun Watson’s 24.1 fantasy points per game were far and away the best mark in the league, before going down for the season after tearing his ACL in practice.
Quarterbacks are just so replaceable on a week to week basis. We still haven’t even mentioned Big Ben, Jimmy G, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, and many other guys who could actually improve this year.
What I’m trying to say is there is an abundance of great quarterbacks in the league right now. And you only need to start one. That combination makes fantasy quarterbacks a less valuable asset. It’s really just simple supply and demand.
Then, there’s the issue of matchups. Since there are so many above average quarterbacks right now, if any of them have easy matchups, they can easily outscore an elite option who is in a tough matchup. So the top guys don’t necessarily give your team an edge on a weekly basis.
Again, this is a matter of value. If you can get Rodgers in the fourth round or later, I’m all for it. But if you need to give up a top skill position player to do it, I think the cost it too high. You’ll be able to make up the difference with another quarterback or by streaming. It will be much tougher to find a good running back in the latter half of your fantasy draft.
When you finally get ready to draft your fantasy football team this summer, do not draft a quarterback in the first two rounds. In real-life football, a team’s most important asset is the quarterback. But in fantasy, they are highly overrated.